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Will the Gold Card be a Wrecking Ball for the EB-5 Industry

Could the Gold Card replace EB-5? Galati & Chavez examine the legal framework and political realities of Trump's ambitious proposal

Matthew Galati
Philadelphia

Halston Chavez
Charlotte

On February 25, 2025, the Trump administration introduced the idea of the “Gold Card,” a new immigration program where, purportedly, individuals would pay $5 million to the US government in exchange for permanent residency and a “path to citizenship.”

Trump presented the program as a way to attract wealthy individuals who would invest, spend, and pay taxes, contributing to reducing the national debt. He suggested the program could raise $5 trillion if the government manages to sell one million Gold Cards and even reach $50 trillion if the government can issue ten million Gold Cards, potentially wiping out the US national debt.

The program promises to provide individuals with a pathway to citizenship and an exemption from US tax jurisdiction on worldwide income. This would seemingly be the only difference from “status quo” immigration.

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Trump’s freewheeling press conference sent mass confusion and shockwaves through the EB-5 ecosystem. Understanding precisely what he proposed requires a discussion in great detail, which, at present, is absent from the public eye. 

However, we will do our best to discuss the “knowns” of the Gold Card program and how it fits within the context of US immigration law, EB-5 history, and American politics.

Despite promises of extensive vetting, the qualifications for the Gold Card remain unclear.

The legal framework is also vague, given that the Executive Branch cannot create new visa categories without congressional approval. The Administration indicated the program could launch within two weeks, although many operational and legal details remain unresolved.

Why did Trump propose the Gold Card?

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, speaking alongside Trump, stated that the new program would replace the existing EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program, which he characterized as “full of nonsense, make-believe, and fraud.”

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He stated that the Gold Card would replace EB-5, with rigorous vetting of applicants to ensure they are “world-class global citizens.” US companies could buy Gold Cards to sponsor foreign talent, helping retain highly skilled workers by ensuring long-term work authorization.

Trump noted that most countries would likely be eligible, with applicants undergoing vetting to ensure they have a positive view of the US.

He even mentioned Russian oligarchs as potential candidates, notwithstanding that they have become pariahs in the world RCBI markets following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

In a Fox Business exclusive interview on February 28, 2025, Lutnick revealed that the idea for the Gold Card came from discussions between Trump and financier John Paulson, a prominent hedge fund manager known for his successful bet against the US housing market during the 2008 financial crisis – i.e. a central character in the Big Short.

According to Lutnick, Paulson raised the idea during a weekend conversation, questioning why the US wasn’t doing more to attract foreign investment through its immigration programs.

This sparked a series of talks, and by the following week, Trump publicly introduced the Gold Card concept during a press conference. It is not clear whether Paulson had an axe to grind against the EB-5 program or any of its stakeholders.

It is important to note that these calls for reforms come three short years after Congress spoke directly on the EB-5 issue through the 2022 EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act (RIA).

The RIA was a legislative response to growing concerns over fraud, abuse, and lack of oversight within the EB-5 Program. The EB-5 program, which the government created in 1990, allowed foreign investors to obtain US green cards by investing in job-creating projects, but over the years, it faced significant scrutiny.

Reports of fraudulent projects, misuse of investor funds, and inadequate transparency, particularly in the Regional Center Program, which allowed pooled investments, led to calls for reform.

Lawmakers, government watchdogs, and stakeholders agreed that stronger oversight and clearer rules were necessary to protect both investors and the program’s integrity.

The path to reform was long and contentious, as the government undertook various attempts to pass legislation to reauthorize and improve the Regional Center Program.

By June 2021, the Regional Center Program lapsed due to Congress’s failure to renew it, as champions on both sides of the political aisle could not sway key votes, leaving thousands of investors in limbo and casting uncertainty over the entire program.

This lapse increased the urgency for comprehensive reform, as both industry leaders and policymakers recognized that without significant changes, the program’s future – and the investments of thousands of immigrants – were at risk.

In March 2022, the government finally enacted the RIA as part of a broader omnibus spending bill.

The RIA reauthorized the Regional Center Program through September 2027 and introduced sweeping reforms. These included enhanced reporting requirements, investor fund audits, more stringent project oversight, and anti-fraud measures to increase transparency and accountability.

The RIA also aimed to provide greater protection for investors and restore confidence in the program while preserving its goal of attracting foreign capital to stimulate economic development in the United States.

Until last week, the entire EB-5 stakeholder community had viewed the program’s existence through 2027 as a given. But now, there is a real chance that the Gold Card could completely replace EB-5.

What is the possibility of this happening? Should stakeholders be concerned?

In looking to our crystal ball to determine the future of the EB-5 status quo vis-à-vis the Gold Card program, we must consider the law within the greater context of politics.

It is not as simple as just stating that Trump has no ability to change statutory provisions – we also have to consider the levers of power held by the Republican Party, which seemingly will bend to his will, and Trump’s less-than-perfect record of following through on immigration-related promises.

First, analyzing the law is relatively easy. Realistically, Trump has no Constitutional authority to unilaterally eliminate the EB-5 program or create a new Gold Card visa program on his own.

The RIA includes important grandfathering protections for investors who file petitions before September 30, 2026 — a year before the program’s expiration date.

The grandfathering provisions require that USCIS continue processing petitions that applicants file before that date, even if the program itself were to sunset, and explicitly prohibits denying petitions solely because the program ends. This means investors who apply before that deadline already have significant protections in place.

It is also important to remember that the Executive Branch has very little power through executive action, although he could make EB-5 immigration extremely difficult.

Even if Trump attempted to act unilaterally, any such move would likely face immediate legal challenges, and past precedent suggests the courts would not be receptive to an executive-created visa program.

The Trump Administration itself has challenged blanket uses of “parole” to allow certain populations – ranging from startup founders to Ukranian war refugees – access to the United States.

If Congress were to take EB-5 head-on, the most plausible scenario would be for Trump to lobby Congress to overhaul EB-5 when the program’s next reauthorization comes up in 2027.

Congress does have plenary power with immigration and could enact practically anything it wanted, including even retroactive measures. However, Congress’ action is far from guaranteed.

To dismantle or replace EB-5 with the Gold Card program, Trump would need Congress to pass new legislation, which seems highly unlikely given the current political gridlock and the narrow Republican majority in the House.

Or maybe not.

Second, politics may override initial pollyannish reactions, such as Trump not getting what he wants. 

Last week, much of Washington was caught by surprise when the Trump Administration endorsed the House Republicans’ budgetary bill (more on this below).

Despite potential revolts from Republican fiscal hawks, the budget passed narrowly, 217-215, with one lone Republican, Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky), joining the Democrats in opposition.

On Wednesday, Bloomberg Business reporter Erik Watson indicated that Republican leadership plans to use the budget bill after it passes the Senate to enact much of the Trumpian Agenda through a process known as reconciliation.

This surprisingly included the Gold Card proposal. Attaching EB-5 provisions to must-pass fiscal legislation is hardly anything new – it is how both the originating legislation of the Regional Center Program in 1992 and the RIA 30 years later came into law.

Failure to pass a budget would be a major political embarrassment for the Republicans.

Accordingly, if GOP leadership follows through and attaches Gold Card provisions into that spending bill, it is exceedingly likely that it will become law, as it would be unlikely that Republican majorities in either the House or Senate would sink the entire budget over a relatively small visa program. 

EB-5 is tied for the lowest quota allocation of any preference category in either the family or employment-based immigration system.

Third, all this being said, we should also keep in mind that many of Trump’s past immigration promises — such as Mexico paying for a border wall or a blanket ban on Muslims entering the US— largely went unfulfilled, though they generated significant attention.

We can already see how the Administration is already walking back aspects of the Gold Card proposal. For example, Lutnick suggested in a later Cabinet meeting that the Gold Card could be tied to some form of EB-5 investment, though he did not provide any concrete framework.

Is the Gold Card Feasible?

If the government offers the Gold Card only to individuals, demand would likely be extremely low.

For context, demand for EB-5 peaked in 2015-16 when the minimum investment was $500,000 — a fraction of the $5 million Trump is proposing.

At its peak, the government received fewer than 15,000 petitions annually. It seems exceedingly unlikely that this number would be ten times higher at ten times the price tag.

We see that already. Since the investment threshold grew to $800,000 and $1,050,000, demand has dropped significantly from those all-time highs.

The idea that 10 million people would apply at the $5 million level, as Trump has claimed, is completely unrealistic. That number represents nearly 20% of all millionaires worldwide — a plurality of whom are already US citizens.

Lutnick claims there are 250,000 applicants who have already signed up, but this figure seems to be inaccurate as there are no forms available through USCIS yet, and EB-5 is still the only way to apply for investment-based permanent residence.

Due to these lofty expectations, the Gold Card program is highly likely to fall short of its goals. Trump had suggested as much previously.

If companies can purchase Gold Cards for key employees, as Trump has suggested, there could be some interest.

Large tech companies might be willing to pay the fee for exceptionally talented foreign workers, such as highly skilled engineers or researchers.

However, even in that scenario, the $5 million price tag is steep, and we think it is unlikely to generate significant volume. It would also have to compete with standard US immigration law pathways such as labor market tests, proving an immigrant is in the national interest, and extraordinary ability visas (EB-1 through EB-3).

Why would large numbers of companies pay $5 million when these programs require no investment beyond legal and filing fee costs?

These companies could now offer their employees net $800,000 bonuses, and they could do EB-5. We simply do not see that much in daily practice.

Additionally, ultra-high-net-worth individuals often do not want to subject themselves to the US tax system and surveillance, even if they are not obligated to pay worldwide taxes, as Trump suggests.

He has promised extreme vetting, but we find it unlikely that applicants who balked at EB-5 would now want to turn over extensive financial records, tax returns, and business documents to the US Government, which would almost certainly be a requirement for any credible version of the program.

Does any of this make any sense?

Not really, no.

During the initial public-facing announcement of the Gold Card proposal, Lutnick criticized the EB-5 program, as discussed above.

While there have been isolated cases of fraud in the history of the EB-5 program, Lutnick’s characterization – and most mainstream media reporting about it – ignores the substantial legislative reforms Congress enacted in 2022 through the RIA.

The government had specifically designed the RIA to enhance oversight, increase transparency, and minimize fraud, creating some of the most stringent investor vetting and compliance requirements in the program’s history and relatively robust compared to some competing RCBI programs worldwide.

The RIA introduced new requirements at every stage of the EB-5 process, including enhanced source of funds tracing requirements, mandatory third-party fund administration to prevent embezzlement, and increased reporting obligations for Regional Centers and project sponsors.

It also gave USCIS greater authority to audit projects and terminate non-compliant Regional Centers, adding significant government oversight to the program.

Congress, through the RIA, acknowledged the potential for abuse, but instead of dismantling EB-5, lawmakers opted to preserve the program while implementing comprehensive reforms to protect both investors and the integrity of the immigration system.

And, of course, EB-5 investors, by definition, create jobs. That is the centerpiece of the program.

Do we expect any stakeholder backlash?

Absolutely, although it has been muted so far.

The uncertainty caused by this announcement has created significant stress and fear among current stakeholders. On the immigrant side, we are already having difficult conversations with existing EB-5 investors who are deeply concerned about their ongoing EB-5 dependent status. 

Many EB-5 investors have invested their life savings — anywhere from $500,000 to $1.8 million — and for them, this is not just a financial transaction but the only pathway to permanent residency in the United States.

In fact, for most, the green card is the ultimate goal, while earning money on their investment is but a nominal concern.

In the past week, prospective investors’ reactions have ranged from wishing to file with extreme urgency, a wait-and-see approach, or calling off plans altogether.

New uncertainty in the EB-5 ecosystem is especially painful following the suspension of the Regional Center program from July 2021 to March 2022, when thousands of petitions were in limbo. The US can ill afford what would look like to be a second attempt at a rug pull.

It’s also important to recognize that there is an entire community of professionals – attorneys, economists, business plan writers, agents, and others – who have spent their careers learning this extremely specialized program and helping immigrant investors achieve their goals of building a life in the US.

The sudden uncertainty surrounding EB-5’s future doesn’t just disrupt investors; it threatens the livelihoods of professionals who have dedicated themselves to ensuring the program operates with integrity and delivers real economic and immigration benefits.

That said, some stakeholders are holding onto the hope that Trump’s focus on investment-based immigration could mean he intends to keep attracting foreign capital — which could lead to an even stronger EB-5 program – should it remain in place.

However, most of these are muffled and offer no criticism of what remains a very real threat.

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