“Nothing Is As Simple As Trump Makes It Out To Be”: Experts Analyze Gold Card Plan

President Donald Trump has announced plans to replace the EB-5 program with a new “Gold Card,” requiring a $5 million payment directly to the US government.

The proposal, which would offer a path to citizenship without taxes on foreign income, aims to attract wealthy global investors while generating substantial government revenue.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has now provided additional details, explaining that the administration will “modify the EB-5” rather than eliminate it. He criticized the existing program as “poorly overseen, poorly executed” with investments that “were often suspect” and “didn’t really work out.”

Lutnick indicated that he and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will “design the EB-5 investment model” to create what he called “a proper business.”

Constitutional Questions and Implementation Challenges

David Lesperance, founder and managing partner of Lesperance & Associates, cautions that the program’s implementation isn’t as straightforward as it seems.

“Nothing is as simple as Trump makes it out to be. Whether he can pass this by executive order or whether he needs to go to Congress is a constitutional issue,” though he notes that with “a compliant Republican majority in both houses, he can get it done.”

Lesperance suggests that Trump might pursue both routes simultaneously to ensure implementation.

The administration’s ability to bypass Congress remains questionable. Rahul Soni, Partner at Fragomen, points out that “US federal immigration and nationality law is controlled by Congress and protected under the Constitution,” adding that “Congress affirmatively reauthorized the EB-5 Regional Center program through 2027″ under the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act.

The program’s long-term viability also depends on its implementation method. “If he [Trump] does it by Executive order, a new President can cancel the program on Day 1,” Lesperance warns.

He says a legislatively established program would provide more stability since “a new administration would need to get congressional approval to kill it.”

Philippe May, CEO of EC Holdings, expresses simple optimism about the program’s prospects with a straightforward “I hope so!”

He believes the program will endure beyond Trump’s presidency because “the democrats are not as bad as the socialists in Europe. Hence, the program will probably survive in one form or another.”

Tax Implications Raise Skepticism

One of the Gold Card’s most attractive proposed features—exemption from US taxes on foreign income—faces significant obstacles.

Lesperance dismisses this promise as “pure sales puffery” since “such a feature requires significant changes to the tax code and is extremely unlikely to get through.”

Katie Ananina, CEO of Plan B Passport, expresses more optimism about potential tax reforms. “I am very hopeful about the end of citizenship-based taxation.”

She says this would be a “huge step toward restoring personal liberties and allowing individuals to choose with whom they share the fruits of their labor,” adding that such a change “would also boost the Gold Card sales.”

Philippe May agrees that the tax component is crucial, stating the $5 million price tag “is perfectly reasonable” if “foreign income is tax-exempt (as President Trump hinted).”

Program’s Appeal and Market Position

The Gold Card’s success will depend partly on its advantages over existing options.

According to Lesperance, if the EB-5 continues alongside the Gold Card, “then the Gold Card program must have some distinct advantage in order to remain competitive.”

He suggests eliminating country quotas could provide “a processing speed advantage in Asian and other backlogged markets.”

Soni notes that Trump announced the “Gold Card” on February 25, proposing “a pathway to US citizenship for a $5 million investment” that would “eradicate issues of fraud associated with the current EB-5 program.”

He says that, unlike the current program, Trump “did not mention any requirements of job-creation, as is the pinnacle of the current EB-5 process.”

Soni indicates the programs might coexist rather than replace each other, “creating another route to permanent residency and citizenship for ultra-high-net-worth investors.”

He notes the $5 million price “far exceeds donation options in other countries,” positioning it as a premium option in the global market.

The donation model appeals to some experts. Ananina, who had “correctly predicted the price tag” long before Trump announced it, finds the amount “reasonable for a donation” and hopes the program doesn’t shift to an investment model, which she feels “would be the wrong turn.”

Advantages Over the Current EB-5 Program

Ananina believes the Gold Card presents a welcome alternative to the problematic EB-5 program. “For years now, the EB-5 has been known for fraudulent schemes.”

She says both sides of the administration have “tried to fix it, which, in my opinion, was impossible under the existing policy.”

She finds the new proposal promising, stating that “having this straightforward path to a ‘gold card’ with the right to apply for naturalization makes sense to me.”

The Gold Card’s streamlined approach could avoid bureaucratic inefficiencies Ananina warns against.

She hopes they “don’t fall back into old habits and hire 87,000 new ‘gold card agents’ to process applications,” suggesting the program could be a “nice ‘side hustle'” for the government if properly managed.

Advice for Current EB-5 Applicants

Experts offer different perspectives on what current EB-5 applicants should do.

Soni reassures those in the pipeline that their applications should remain protected. The EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act “maintains grandfathering provisions for investors who file before September 2026,” he explains.

He notes that “under the Department of State’s upcoming Visa Bulletin, all nationalities, including India- and China-born nationals, remain current through certain expedited regional center projects,” making this “an excellent time to apply.”

In a recent hearing, Trump said he didn’t plan on banning nationalities but instead focused on individuals.

May advises “those already in process to continue,” while Lesperance suggests that interested investors “keep their powder dry until they see the details on the Gold Card and the future of the EB-5 program so they can make an informed decision.”

Ananina takes a more critical stance toward the existing program, stating her advice “is and has always been to not go through EB-5. I’ve never been a fan of the program—investing $1 million only to be treated as a political asylum applicant.”

Industry Impact and Public Response

The Gold Card could significantly reshape the investment migration industry in the US.

Soni observes that this shift parallels trends in other jurisdictions, noting that “in 2022, the UK ended its investment-based residency program, the EU adjusted or shut down various residency-by-investment schemes, and several Caribbean citizenship-by-investment programs tightened their requirements.”

For firms specializing in US investment migration, adaptation will be essential. May predicts that “firms which are focused on US investor migration only need to reinvent themselves.”

Whether migration firms will offer the Gold Card without traditional commission structures remains an open question.

Ananina states she would offer it because “I represent the client, not the government” and argues that “government commission disrupts the incentives, and in an ideal scenario, the industry would be able to sustain itself without relying on the kickback.”

May points out that “there are always administrative fees for the legal and documentation work of RCBI firms.”

Lesperance notes that if “the EB-5 visa program is killed, then the option of commissions from regional centers becomes moot.”

He ponders the question: “Does the US government need salespeople to sell the Gold Card, or can it successfully go directly to the consumer?”

He points out that “stakeholders such as EB-5 salespeople and Regional Centers would become irrelevant if Trump kills the EB-5 Visa program.”

He says “they [EB-5 stakeholders] will be extremely unhappy, but Trump will probably ignore them also…unless they offer some other benefit to him!”

Public opposition appears manageable. Lesperance acknowledges that “there will be some public backlash from those who philosophically oppose the sale of US Green Cards” but doubts that this resistance will be effective in stopping Trump.

May expects only “the usual rumbling from the political left, but even that in a very limited fashion as the US left is not anti-RCBI like the far left in Europe.”

Ananina believes the program’s survival beyond Trump’s tenure is likely, stating that after “a three-year track record,” she doesn’t “see a solid reason” for the government to cancel the EB-5 program and that the Gold Card can act as “another income stream and just another immigration program.”