“I Think It Will Pass in Its Most Restrictive Shape”: Experts Examine Portugal’s Proposed Naturalization Law

Golden Visa experts weigh in on retroactivity, investor confidence, possible outcomes, and the future of the program.

Portugal’s Golden Visa faces a pivotal moment as proposed citizenship law changes spark debate about constitutional principles, investor confidence, and the future of the program. Industry leaders across the sector reveal a complex picture of measured concern, strategic adaptation, and divided opinions about potential grandfathering provisions.

The Constitutional Argument

Carolina Figueiredo, Program Director at Arton Capital, points to “a strong legal argument that applying a ten-year requirement retroactively would violate the principles of legal certainty and legitimate expectation.” This view resonates across the industry, as Liberty Legal’s Founder Madalena Monteiro and Optylon Krea’s CCO Safak Nervo both identify retroactivity as the most vulnerable aspect of the proposed legislation.

Not everyone shares this optimism about constitutional challenges. Alex Recouso, CEO of CitizenX, takes a stark view: “I personally think it will pass in its most restrictive shape.”

Market reactions reveal a nuanced investor response. While Nervo reports that clients have “expressed disappointment,” and new leads have “mostly got on hold.” 

Alexandre Cunha Elias, Business Development Director at 3 Comma Capital, observes “almost no reactions or comments from existing clients.”

Recouso paints a different picture, noting his clients are “discouraged not just by the changes but about the overall political instability and uncertainty.” He observes that “people have started to look into options with a clearer path to citizenship, as that’s what our clients care about.”

The specter of misinformation compounds market uncertainty. Figueiredo notes that “some news outlets and commentators have assumed that the law is already in effect and that it will automatically apply retroactively to all Golden Visa holders.” Monteiro confirms this confusion, noting clients believe “the law is already effective” when it remains in draft form.

Recouso identifies a different form of misinformation: “I see people who are advising clients to rush into Portugal when, in reality, there’s no certainty on whether it will take five or ten years to get citizenship.”

Industry professionals advocate measured responses to uncertainty. Elias advises clients to “stay calm,” emphasizing that “acting on speculation won’t help” given multiple unresolved questions about implementation details. These include whether the residency requirement will be seven or ten years, whether retroactivity will apply from June 19 or only upon the law’s official entry into force, and whether eligibility will count from application submission or residence card issuance. 

Additional uncertainties involve how family reunification will function under the Golden Visa and whether holders will qualify for permanent residency with tax benefits after five years, potentially offsetting longer citizenship wait times.

Recouso’s advice is more cautious: “Wait until there’s clarity, then decide if Portugal is the right fit for you or not.”

Industry leaders have taken different approaches to engaging the government. Monteiro reports successful government contact, while Elias describes “actively working to support efforts to bring well-founded information to all political parties.” Figueiredo’s firm engages with “relevant stakeholders, including prominent legal figures” to ensure unified industry representation.

The industry expects grandfathering provisions, though opinions vary on their scope. Figueiredo expresses optimism that “the government will introduce grandfathering provisions, particularly for Golden Visa investors and other residents who began their legal stay under the five-year rule.” This sentiment aligns with Portugal’s historical approach to legislative changes and would send “a strong message of stability to future investors.”

Elias shares this optimism with specific predictions: “We believe that certain provisions are likely to be grandfathered. In particular, we expect that the new law will not be applied retroactively from June 19, but rather take effect only upon its official entry into force.” This would mean “investors who have already submitted their applications will be protected under the current framework.”

Others offer more targeted expectations. Monteiro believes “the law regarding how the clock starts counting” will be grandfathered, while Nervo expects protection for “the ones that are in the process.”

Recouso presents the most restrictive view: “I personally think only those who already had the residency permit in hand at the moment the law was passed will be allowed to naturalize after 5 years.”

What Happens Next

The proposed changes create particular challenges for investors already navigating extended processing times. Figueiredo describes clients “whose application cycles have already taken so long that they’ve witnessed one major law change” now facing another potential reversal. 

He says this compounds the sense of instability as the proposed changes “don’t just extend the countdown to the date when residence cards are issued,” but also double the naturalization period.

Strategic advice varies based on risk tolerance. Nervo counsels clients to “proceed if they are comfortable with a ten-year timeline, which would be the worst-case scenario.” This approach acknowledges that moving forward now may benefit investors if existing applications receive exemptions from new regulations.

Market predictions diverge on the Golden Visa program’s future. Elias believes that if changes limit themselves to extending residency requirements to seven years, “the volume of Golden Visa applications is unlikely to decrease in any meaningful way.” Conversely, Nervo predicts applications “will decrease” if the ten-year requirement becomes law.

Recouso anticipates a shift in investor preferences: “I think people will look into other Golden Visa options, such as Italy, or full relocation for those interested in living in the EU to places like France that offer a 5-year path to citizenship.”

Elias expects “the final version is likely to settle on a seven-year residency requirement for all applicants” while maintaining the Golden Visa program’s core structure unchanged. This middle ground could balance government objectives with maintaining Portugal’s attractiveness to international investors.

Figueiredo captures the sector’s cautious optimism, noting that while retroactive application without transitional provisions “could negatively impact investor sentiment and damage Portugal’s established image as a stable and welcoming jurisdiction,” reasonable provisions protecting existing investors could help Portugal “maintain its attractiveness as a long-term EU investment gateway.”