The First 5 Years of the UAE Golden Visa: Examining Its Impact and Evolution

As the UAE Golden Visa program marks its fifth anniversary, it is witnessing an unprecedented surge in demand. Dubai’s General Directorate of Residency and Foreigners Affairs (GDRFA) issued 158,000 golden visas in 2023, nearly doubling the 79,617 granted in 2022 and more than tripling the 47,150 issued in 2021.

The program’s soaring popularity is in part due to Dubai’s thriving luxury property market, as Russian investors lead the charge. Since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war in early 2022, Russians have purchased an estimated US$6.3 billion worth of properties in Dubai, representing a tenfold increase compared to pre-invasion levels.

The UAE's decision to cancel the AED1 million minimum down payment requirement for golden visa eligibility through real estate investment in early 2024 has likely contributed to the program's growing appeal.

As the Golden Visa program reaches this milestone, industry experts weigh in on its evolution, the factors driving its success, and its potential trajectory in the coming years.

Divergent publicity: EU vs. UAE Golden Visas

Media coverage regarding the UAE Golden Visa is typically limited to the GCC region and news outlets in countries with large diasporas in the UAE, such as Pakistan and India.

The UAE Golden Visa doesn't appear as much, though, in investment migration outlets and consultancy blogs.

David Lincoln, CEO and founder of Lincoln Global Partners, attributes the UAE Golden Visa's relatively lower publicity among investment migration professionals to the program's numerous pathways and Dubai's highly competitive real estate market.

Lincoln points out that "there are so many different pathways, so it is less focused than other Golden Visa programs." He adds, "every real estate developer or agent knows a lawyer who can help with the Golden Visa, and many developers promote it directly."

Kemal Nicholson, CEO of Cinvest Migration, notes that while the UAE's residency programs have gained popularity, they lack the "historical context or political implications" of the EU's Golden Visas.

Nicholson believes this issue is "deeply embedded in the larger EU narrative, particularly concerning immigration and economic policies, which naturally garners more media interest." The UAE's programs, being "newer and less controversial," receive different levels of attention.

In contrast, Jeremy Savory, founder and CEO of Savory & Partners, believes the UAE's program is "universally popular," unlike the EU's Golden Visas, which he sees as often mired in politics and controversy.

He asserts that the UAE's golden visa doesn't get as much media attention (or backlash) because it's universally popular, but for the EU, "it's politics, gaslighting, the usual stuff that led to Brexit, end of non-dom, and more."

Balancing accessibility and exclusivity

The recently reported AED30,000 ($8,200) minimum salary requirement has sparked discussions about the program's accessibility and target audience.

Nicholson suggests that introducing a minimum salary threshold could "potentially narrow the applicant pool, focusing on higher-income individuals," which might shift perceptions from widely accessible to more exclusive but could also "enhance the program's prestige and attract higher-net-worth individuals."

Lincoln agrees, expressing his belief that the minimum salary requirement will not make much difference, especially for the real estate option.

He points out that the UAE is expensive, and the vast majority of investors are drawn to the country for a luxurious lifestyle, adding that "this sort of salary is now required to live well in a city like Dubai."

Savory acknowledges that the minimum salary requirement and certain qualifications have been around for some time, noting that "that's what really made it lose that cache, but hey, it's attracting talent, whereas the others were capital-based."

He suggests that the UAE's focus on attracting talent and population growth is driven by a desire to increase property demand and, possibly, tax revenue in the long run.

A different breed of Golden Visa

Philippe May, CEO of EC Holdings, highlights the unique nature of the UAE Golden Visa, noting that it's "cheap, easy, and the UAE is an attractive country for residence (low tax, high HDI, safety, and security, etc.)."

However, he emphasizes that it's not a plan B and does not lead to PR or citizenship, likening it to a "long-term nomad visa."

May distinguishes the UAE Golden Visa from residency programs in countries like Portugal, Uruguay, Bahamas, Monaco, or even Hong Kong, suggesting that it's more akin to work visas for expats in countries like Japan, Vietnam, or Singapore, "except that you don't need to work, don't need to have a job to get it, and don't lose the visa when you lose a job."

He points out that while taxes are much lower in the UAE, it will not be a permanent home for most golden visa holders.

"You cannot integrate into the society, at least not into the local society - only into an expat bubble. It's a temporary, transient thing. The UAE will never be your country, no matter how much you love it or invest there," May explains.

A Strategic Approach to Attracting Wealth

May commends the UAE's strategic approach to the Golden Visa program, noting that "they don't give golden visa holders any benefits like access to (local) school or medical services."

He explains that the UAE lets Golden Visa holders "come and spend money." He suggests that foreigners are drawn to the program due to the ease of obtaining the visa and often find jobs or run businesses in the country.

However, he emphasizes that golden visa holders will ultimately need a third country "to obtain a passport and/or to move to when the party is over in Dubai, and they don't want to move back to their war-torn, overtaxed, or underdeveloped country of citizenship."

At EC Holdings, May explains that they do not promote UAE golden visas in the same category as residency programs in Latvia, Paraguay, Hong Kong, etc., to avoid confusion.

He argues that the term "golden visas" is almost misleading for this program because "a golden visa is generally associated with a Plan B, a permanent back up, and a road to PR or citizenship."

May cautions that if someone, say, a South African or a French national, thinks they can skip obtaining a second passport from a country like Antigua and Barbuda because they have a UAE golden visa, "that's just foolish."

Driving economic growth: Real estate and beyond

The Golden Visa program has played a pivotal role in driving real estate demand, which Savory emphasizes "underpins so much of the economy."

The program has made property ownership more desirable by allowing investors to use their properties as primary residences rather than mere investments. He explains, "you can come and live here and use it [the property], and it can be your principal residence rather than an investment property."

However, the program's impact extends beyond real estate. Savory highlights its role in attracting talent and encouraging the establishment of businesses.

He reveals that the UAE government wants "to attract as many people as possible" and become "another Singapore." He adds that the program encourages people to "come and set up, establish businesses, hire people, expats to come here, relocate."

Lincoln agrees that the UAE, and Dubai in particular, has become one of the world's most desirable destinations.

He cites the UAE's advantages over the UK, his home country, in quality of life, safety, multicultural tolerance, and weather. He laments that "sadly, the UK now loses to the UAE on pretty much every major metric."

Future trajectories: Adapting to changing needs

As the UAE Golden Visa program matures, experts anticipate it will continue evolving to meet the nation's long-term economic and social objectives.

Savory believes the government will make the program more attractive, as they did through recent changes like the ability to obtain a golden visa upon signing a sales and purchase agreement for a property. He asserts that "they're not going to make it more difficult. If anything, they've been making it easier."

However, Lincoln expects the minimum investment requirement for the real estate option to "either rise or possibly even be phased out over time."

Nicholson foresees that "regulations may tighten to ensure that it meets the UAE's long-term economic and social objectives," suggesting that future developments could include "more specialized visas targeting specific sectors" or even more stringent criteria as the program evolves to address the nation's changing needs.

Savory suggests that the UAE's tax policies, including the new corporate tax and potential personal income tax, could be part of a strategy to build a "taxable population" while keeping the country attractive to investors and expatriates.

He speculates that a GCC-wide golden visa, spanning the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, could emerge in the future, akin to the EU or other regional blocs.

The British connection: A key demographic

Savory highlights the UAE's enduring appeal to the British diaspora, particularly British Indians, who have long had an affinity for Dubai, noting that "if you look at the data of non-nationals that bought in UAE, UK has always been top three." The UAE's attractiveness has only grown since the UK ended its non-domicile (non-dom) tax status.

He explains that "UAE is realistic because there's always been a large British diaspora, especially the British Indian diaspora," adding that British Indians have done well in the UK and have been drawn to Dubai due to historical ties and convenient flight connections.

He points out that "the reason why British Indians have always kind of had an affinity in Dubai is because the flights all used to stop in Dubai, and they were a lot of the early purchasers."

Lincoln emphasizes that the UAE is a great alternative to the UK, asserting that "even before ending its non-dom system, the UK has been losing high-net-worth individuals to the UAE."

He believes that Dubai has established itself as one of the most desirable destinations in the world, offering a higher quality of living, safety, multicultural tolerance, and better weather than the UK.

However, Nicholson cautions against direct comparisons between the UAE's residency program and the UK's non-dom regime, explaining that "comparing the UAE's residency program to the UK's now-defunct non-dom regime is a bit like comparing apples and oranges."

He emphasizes that "the two systems were designed with different objectives and operate in very different contexts."

The UAE's willingness to refine and enhance the program bodes well for its continued success. Savory notes that "Dubai is one of those places that people hate it or love it," but from a purely financial standpoint, he believes the Golden Visa "ticks more boxes than it crosses," positioning the UAE as a prime destination for those seeking stability, opportunity, and a luxurious lifestyle.