Prime Minister Rob Jetten’s government is exploring changes to the 36% unrealized gains tax passed by the House of Representatives in February, according to a Finance Ministry spokesperson cited by Bloomberg.
The administration takes concerns “seriously” and is working on amendments in two areas: loss carry-back relief and an expanded definition of startup exemptions.
Opposition has intensified across multiple fronts since the lower house vote. A petition against the law gathered more than 61,000 signatures, and Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke called it “the dumbest thing any government on planet earth is pursuing right now” in February.
Loss Carry-Back and the Startup Fix
Under the bill as passed, investors who pay tax on unrealized gains in one year cannot claim a retroactive refund if those gains evaporate the next. Losses can be carried forward against future gains indefinitely, but no carry-back mechanism exists. For anyone holding volatile assets, the asymmetry is acute: a stock that surges and then crashes produces a tax bill in year one with no corresponding relief until new gains materialize.
Jetten’s government has indicated it will address this gap. No draft language has been published.
On startups, the current bill exempts shares in firms less than five years old with annual sales below €30 million (approximately US$35 million) from the unrealized gains track, taxing them instead only on realization.
The government is consulting on a broader definition that would cover any unlisted firm deemed “scalable and growing rapidly due to innovation,” according to Deloitte Netherlands tax partner Cindy van de Luijtgaarden-Braat. Whether this wider carve-out satisfies the tech sector remains to be seen.
Senate Pushback From Within the Coalition
The Dutch Senate sent 36 pages of detailed questions on the bill to Tax Minister Eelco Eerenberg, Bloomberg reported. Politicians from parties in the ruling coalition were among those raising objections. Because the upper house cannot directly amend legislation, its leverage is binary: approve or reject.
The finance ministry acknowledged in late February that the bill might not survive the Senate in its current form, which prompted the amendment process now underway.
Delaying the reform carries its own price. The government estimates that shelving the new system would cost €2.4 billion (approximately US$2.8 billion) in annual revenue, a figure that explains why legislators who dislike the bill’s design still voted for it in the lower house.
Behavioral Shifts Already Underway
A March survey of private investors by ING found that 9% were already reducing risk exposure ahead of the 2028 implementation date. Roughly three-quarters said they may adjust investment strategies once the system takes effect.
ABN Amro MeesPierson wealth planning expert Peter Beets noted that clients are actively exploring their options, with emigration a frequent topic of conversation. Moving assets into corporate structures taxed under different rules is another approach, though it carries disadvantages including additional administrative burden.
The Netherlands already faces scrutiny over proposed exit tax measures that would keep emigrating residents subject to Dutch income tax for up to five years after departure. No draft legislation on that front has materialized, and it faces obstacles under EU free-movement law.
A Temporary Law That May Be Permanent
The political trajectory around the Box 3 reform is unusual. The D66/VVD/CDA coalition agreement, published in January, explicitly calls for eventually replacing the unrealized gains component with a conventional capital gains tax.
Alongside the bill itself, the House passed a motion demanding the government present a realized-gains-only alternative by Budget Day 2028.
In practice, however, the timeline for such a transition is uncertain. Dutch lawmaker Michiel Hoogeveen offered a counterpoint during parliamentary debate that has since become the reform’s unofficial epitaph: “Nothing is as permanent as a temporary law.”
The bill awaits Senate approval ahead of a planned implementation date of January 1, 2028. Whether the amendments under development will be enough to secure that approval is an open question. The Netherlands taxes residents on worldwide income across three schedules, with Box 3 covering savings and investments at a flat 36% rate.
