Panama approved 1,546 capital-based residence permits for main applicants between January and June 2026, according to figures from the Servicio Nacional de Migración. Doubling the half-year gives 3,092 for the full year, down 41% on 2025 and 46% below the 2024 record of 5,776.
Those totals cover the five categories Panama reports without interruption. Two of them dominate: the Friendly Nations Visa (FNV) and the Jubilados y Pensionados independent means permit. Remaining volume comes from the Qualified Investor Visa (QIV) and the two solvencia propia routes tied to fixed deposits and real estate.
Panama publishes only its largest permit categories, so smaller investor routes drop out of the table once their volume falls below the reporting cutoff. Their absence from a given year sets no figure for them, and the aggregates here exclude them throughout for consistency.
Friendly Nations Visa sits 15 approvals above its weakest year
The FNV took 1,011 approvals in H1, which annualizes to 2,022. Its weakest year on record is 2020, at 2,007.
Under 996 approvals in the second half would give 2026 the lowest FNV total Panama has published since 2015. Above 1,109 and the year clears 2023 to land third from the bottom instead. Between those two outcomes lie 113 approvals.
A flat-line 2026 puts the FNV 26% below 2025 and marks a second consecutive annual decline. That follows the 2024 rebound to 3,228, itself the strongest year since the 2021 peak of 4,318. Applicants rushed to file that year ahead of the increase in the minimum investment from US$5,000 to US$200,000.
Jordi Vilanova, president of Mercan Group, said the two-year provisional residence period “has reduced some of the program’s historical appeal.” Investors weighing alternatives find a cleaner proposition in the Qualified Investor Visa, which he noted “provides permanent residency from the outset.”
Independent means approvals fall by two thirds
Jubilados y Pensionados approvals came to 347 in H1, against a full-year 2025 record of 1,929. Doubled, the category lands at 694, a fall of 64% and its weakest total since 2021.
No other category moved that far. In absolute terms the drop runs to 1,235 approvals, almost double the combined output of the three reported non-FNV investor routes in their strongest year.
Until now, the Jubilados y Pensionados permit had climbed without interruption since 2021, from 625 to 1,414, then 1,627, 1,917, and 1,929. Four consecutive records ended in a single half-year.
Vilanova cautioned against reading that drop as weaker demand. He would rather separate a fall in new filings from a processing backlog. Approval data alone, he said, “does not necessarily tell us which of those two factors is driving the decline.”
Qualified Investor Visa breaks a two-year plateau
The QIV registered 100 approvals in H1, doubling to 200 against 327 in each of 2024 and 2025. A flat-line year takes the program to its weakest total since 2023, when it recorded 187.
Vilanova expects the category “gradually to represent a larger share of Panama’s investment-migration market.” Mercan formalized a partnership with the Panamanian government in October 2025 to promote the route internationally.
Fixed deposit solvencia propia approvals reached 56, pointing to 112 for the year against 141 in 2025. Its real estate counterpart took 32, projecting 64, one approval above the 2023 low of 63 and the second-weakest reading in an eleven-year series.
A procedural change on the secondary market may bear on that route. Mikkel Thorup, chief executive of Expat Money, said buyers of existing property must now commission an independent third-party audit and appraisal. The step establishes actual value and costs a couple thousand dollars.
His understanding is that the requirement followed foreign firms buying low-priced tract housing and reselling at US$300,000 after cosmetic work, leaving neither capital nor jobs behind. Pre-construction purchases carry no equivalent step.
Together the three non-FNV investor categories project to 376, down 32% on 2025 and 40% below the 2024 high of 631. Their 2023 trough of 355 still sits lower. Two smaller routes, Ciudad del Saber and mixed investment, registered nothing in 2025 or the first half of 2026.
Approval rates hold between 96% and 98%
Panama approved 96% of FNV files in H1, 98% of Jubilados y Pensionados, 98% of fixed deposit, 96% of QIV, and 96% of real estate. Every reading falls inside the 93% to 100% band the country has posted since 2022.
Rates that are steady alongside volume at this weak point to fewer files reaching a decision, not to harsher screening. These figures count approvals for main applicants rather than applications, and they exclude dependants.
Doubling the half-year assumes a split Panama has not published
The immigration service does not release H1 and H2 breakdowns for prior years, so every annualized figure here is a flat-line projection rather than a forecast. A seasonal skew in either direction would move the totals.
Processing lag varies by category as well. Decreto Ejecutivo 722 gives the QIV a statutory decision period of 30 business days, so its approvals track filings closely. An FNV file passes through a months-long assessment before any provisional permit issues.
Vilanova expects the second half to run ahead of the first as international distribution and promotion increase. Whether that carries total 2026 approvals past 2025 is, he said, “too early to say.”
Thorup had not registered the slowdown at all. His team has been “extremely busy this year,” with four investor trips to Panama already completed and a fifth due within a fortnight.
Neither reading contradicts the other. Both men point to a shift in the mix rather than a retreat from Panama, and both stop short of calling the direction of new filings.
On a flat-line basis, 3,092 approvals would make 2026 Panama’s second-weakest year for capital-based immigration since 2015. Only 2020 sits lower, and 2019 recorded 3,196.
