Winners and Losers of Caribbean CBI MoA

The pan-Caribbean CBI Memorandum of Agreement (MoA) was always going to lead to a hectic July, and it delivered. Price updates, structural changes, and citizenship revocations quickly followed.

As a result, the CBI landscape in the Caribbean has shifted significantly, and as the dust begins to settle, IMI contacted five experts to determine the MoA’s winners and losers. Below is what they had to say.

Winners: The Caribbean CIP Industry

According to Nisha Mc Intyre, managing director at My Grenada Solutions Inc., the Caribbean region as a whole emerged as a clear winner from the recent changes.

She believes this move allows the Caribbean countries to “reposition our Caribbean programs as valued offerings – and our Caribbean identity as an object of desire that isn’t accessible to all.”

Mc Intyre maintains that the changes will allow the governments and agents to “curate products that are aspirational of those seeking second citizenship while simultaneously reassuring our local communities that their sovereignty will not be cheapened.”

Patrick Peters, CEO of ClientReferrals, shares this sentiment, stating that the “entire Caribbean CIP industry is a winner here.”

Peters expects a “dip in short-term demand, not because of the price, but because the pool of prospective applicants has been absolutely emptied in the last 60 days.”

He anticipates application volume to bounce back within twelve months, with double the investment, making Caribbean governments and promoters “definite winners with these changes.”

Losers: Caribbean Governments

Manpreet Kataria, Managing Director at Alpha Immigration Associates, holds a contrasting view, suggesting that the “biggest losers are going to be the respective governments.”

He argues that the governments allowed financing to spiral out of control, attracting attention from various quarters and forcing them to increase prices “just to satisfy the bullies in the EU, UK, and US governments.”

Kataria predicts a considerable dip in the number of applications, similar to what happened with Saint Kitts & Nevis after they increased prices last year.

Losers: “Voracious Agents” and Financing-Dependent Companies

Kataria expects the price hike to hit “shady RCBI experts” who were “in for quick money and selling passports for $70,000.” These individuals will now need to find new ways to sustain their business, and Kataria foresees many shops closing in the short run.

Mc Intyre echoes this sentiment, saying that the losers are “ultimately the voracious agents, who are driven by greed and have little to no affinity of or consideration for our small islands.”

Partner at Viya Citizenship and InvestGC, Omer Kahraman, also believes that the “biggest loser of the game is companies who set up their entire structure based on financing.”

Winners: European Programs

With Caribbean CBI prices increasing, European residency and citizenship programs may benefit. Kataria suggests that “the biggest winners would be the EU golden visas, mainly Latvia and Hungary, when it starts accepting applications, that is.”

Kahraman agrees with Kataria’s assessment of Latvia’s status and adds the Turkish CIP as a winner. He says he already sees increasing demand for the Turkish program and expects it to grow significantly in the upcoming year.

Regarding the Latvian program, Kahraman says it now has a unique advantage within investment migration, as it can attract “lower echelon HNWIs” priced out of the Caribbean market.

Losers: Dominica

Anastasia Barna, CEO of One World Migration, considers Dominica a loser in this situation. She believes the price increase in the Caribbean “isn’t significant on a global scale” and won’t “affect other program application numbers worldwide, except maybe for Vanuatu.”

Barna explains that despite losing visa-free access to the UK, Dominica’s program remained popular due to its low price. However, with prices now similar to those of other Caribbean countries, Barna thinks the pricing will “considerably affect demand for Dominica’s program.”

Winners: Saint Kitts & Nevis, Grenada, and Antigua & Barbuda

Barna sees Saint Kitts & Nevis and Grenada as winners, as their prices are now more aligned with those of other Caribbean countries. She notes that Grenada, previously the most expensive CBI program, is now “on the same line and even a little bit cheaper than Saint Lucia and Antigua.”

Peters highlights Antigua & Barbuda’s “significant change to their definition of dependents,” which makes the program “very attractive for families.” He highlights that children no longer need to prove financial dependency on their parents to join the application, and applicants can include siblings of any age as dependents, which is a point in Antigua’s favor.

Winner: Vanuatu

With Caribbean CBI prices increasing, Vanuatu’s citizenship program may benefit. Kataria believes that clients primarily seeking citizenship will likely turn to Vanuatu, where they can “pay half the cost of Caribbean and get a passport within a couple of months instead of waiting for a year for the Caribbean passport.”

Barna agrees, asserting that for families who need second citizenship, not for visa-free travel, Vanuatu is a “much more affordable option, especially for clients with a strong passport.”

However, she notes a recent development that may impact Vanuatu’s appeal: “We got the news that clients will need to go physically to the country for fingerprints, which sounds strange and ridiculous; I hope it’s some misunderstanding.”