Argentina’s citizenship by investment (CBI) program will likely exclude real estate options and instead require business investments, according to Philippe May, Founder and CEO at EC Holdings.
Speaking at IMI Connect Rome, May, whose firm has been engaging with Argentine government officials and plans to bid for the upcoming tender, revealed that officials have informally indicated they prefer “more active forms of investment than real estate,” though “that’s not anything that has been announced” officially.
He says the program faces critical execution risks that could determine its success or failure. May warns that “mismanagement in the sense that applications take too long” could undermine the initiative, as could “financing scandals where business investment is made, but only pro forma and money comes back right away to the investor.”
Criteria “That Will Break the Program”
May identifies two scenarios that “will break the program” if they materialize. Processing delays represent the first risk, while fraudulent investment structures pose the second threat, particularly schemes where funds immediately return to investors after meeting technical requirements.
May anticipates the program will accept its first application in Q1 2026, several months after Argentina formalized the legal framework through Decree 524/2025 in July. Details about the program’s structure should emerge soon, as May notes, “we will see it very soon, I guess.”
“Not Real Estate, Probably Business Investment”
The specific investment structure remains undefined, as May acknowledges that predicting “whether it will be in shares or in an operational company” would be “just guessing.”
This ambiguity extends to agent commission structures, which May notes are “very easy to calculate, easy to structure” for donations or real estate, but “hard on a business investment.”
May emphasizes he does “not expect Argentina to have a real estate option due to information we had from officials in Argentina,” though he cautions “that’s just our understanding.” The preference for active investment aligns with the government’s stated economic objectives in Decree 524/2025.
Agent commission structures remain unresolved, as May admits, “I don’t know yet how that will be sorted out.” The final framework depends on investment options and amounts, making it “too early to tell.”
“Almost Any Other Country in Latin America” Could Follow Suit
Argentina’s entry into the CBI market will “whet the appetite of other Latin American countries,” May predicts, answering “yes, definitely” when asked about regional expansion. He envisions “almost any other country in Latin America setting up a program within a few years.”
El Salvador already operates a program, though May characterizes it as “however overpriced, however very small, however focused very much on the Bitcoin community” and notes “it hasn’t been very noticed.” Argentina’s program, by contrast, “will be noticed and properly marketed,” creating momentum for regional adoption.
Predicting the next CBI adopter proves challenging, as May explains, “that one is hard to tell because it depends on governments in power.” He expects “rather centre-right governments” to lead this expansion, noting that “some countries have elections, soon Colombia, Chile.”
May identifies smaller nations as the most likely candidates, suggesting “possibly Ecuador, Central American countries, who knows, maybe Venezuela, Colombia, Paraguay.”
“I Don’t See Chile Doing It, I Don’t See Brazil Doing It”
Larger economies appear unlikely to follow suit. May dismisses the possibility of programs in Chile or Brazil, arguing “it’s just not on their mind” and asserting “I don’t think these rather big countries would make such a move.”
He expects “probably it will be smaller countries” that embrace citizenship by investment programs. This prediction aligns with global patterns where smaller nations typically adopt CBI programs for economic development.
The program’s attractiveness has increased following Argentina’s July 29 application to rejoin the US Visa Waiver Program. Argentine citizenship already provides settlement rights in nine South American countries through the Mercosur Residency Agreement and visa-free travel to 172 destinations, including the Schengen Area.
