The European Parliament has approved sweeping reforms to the EU’s visa suspension mechanism, introducing provisions that explicitly target citizenship by investment (CBI) programs and threaten to reshape the Caribbean industry’s access to the Schengen area.
MEPs backed the legislation 518 to 96 on October 7, with 24 abstentions. The reform expands grounds for suspending visa-free travel to include CBI programs, raising security concerns, hybrid threats, human rights violations, failure to comply with international court decisions, and lack of alignment with EU visa policy.
Final Council Approval Pending
The legislation awaits formal adoption by the Council of the European Union before entering into force 20 days after publication in the Official Journal. The measure will apply to 61 countries whose nationals currently enjoy visa-free access to the Schengen area for short stays of up to 90 days within any 180-day period.
Rapporteur Matjaž Nemec framed the changes as a foreign policy tool, noting Europe remains “the world’s most visited continent by tourists and business travellers alike, and our visa policy is therefore one of our strongest foreign policy tools.”
The modernized mechanism enables the EU to “suspend visa-free travel in the case of serious human rights violations, and can target suspensions at government officials or other groups.”
The additions align grounds for suspension with the grounds for granting visa waivers initially, creating what the legislation describes as a deterrent effect. New provisions specifically cover violations of the United Nations Charter, international human rights or humanitarian law, and breaches of international court decisions.
The reform also lowers the bar for triggering suspensions. Alongside operating a citizenship by investment program that raises security concerns, a 30% increase in overstays, refused entries, or serious criminal offenses now constitutes grounds for action, as does an asylum recognition rate below 20%.
The Commission can deviate from these thresholds in justified cases.
The initial suspension period extends from nine to 12 months, with a possible 24-month extension if issues persist. The mechanism introduces targeted restrictions, allowing the EU to suspend visa exemptions for specific groups such as government officials rather than entire populations.
This flexibility aims to deter third-country governments from violating the terms of their short-stay visa waiver agreements. The EU gains more latitude to suspend visa freedom for government officials who may bear responsibility for a government’s human rights breaches or other violations.
EU “Will Never Be Happy” with CBI
The five Caribbean CBI jurisdictions (Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Saint Kitts & Nevis, and Saint Lucia) implemented region-wide reforms last year following pressure from both the EU and the United States.
The reforms included mandatory interviews, enhanced due diligence, and establishing a unified regulatory authority.
Daisy Joseph Andall, partner at Joseph Rowe Law, commended the Caribbean approach.
She says that in more than any other time in this “almost five decades of citizenship by investment business in the Caribbean,” current governments are “showing themselves to be resolute in creating a responsible, transparent investment migration sector that benefits both our economies and our people.”
She pointed to imminent legislation establishing a “genuine link” between investors and respective Caribbean islands, with scope “stretching into enforcing transparent monitoring and revocation mechanisms.”
She emphasized the islands are “not taking the privilege of visa-free access for granted” and are “not seeking to take anything away from the EU and other international partners.”
Kevin Hosam, founder and chairman at EC Holdings, however, does not agree that cultural integration will be enough to satisfy the EU.
He argues the bloc has “not given the Caribbean a single guideline, they have not given one suggestion,” and that the EU “might have hinted through the Malta judgment of what they were looking for, but they will never be happy once you have a CBI program.”
Hosam contends opposition stems from philosophical objections rather than security concerns. The EU doesn’t “want to give the high net worths the ability to move around and be free and go where they’re treated best,” he argued.
He says it’s “not a matter of due diligence” because due diligence companies are based in these first-world countries, and he points out that the US was vocal in stating its major concerns during the roundtables it had with the Caribbean.
Armand Arton, CEO of Arton Capital, viewed the Parliament’s decision as recognition of balance. Policymakers have “recognized the delicate balance between openness and vigilance when it comes to global mobility” by adopting “a more flexible Visa Suspension Mechanism than initially proposed.”
Arton defended properly governed programs. Investor citizenship and residency programs, “when properly governed, can be powerful tools for attracting talent, investment, and innovation,” he argued.
He says the new framework “rightly seeks to ensure that such programmes uphold the highest standards of due diligence and integrity.”
“Much of the Impact Is Likely Already Priced In”
Industry professionals downplayed immediate investor demand concerns. David Lawrence Lincoln, founder and CEO at Lincoln Global Partners, characterized the development as “anticipated” with much of the impact “likely already priced in.”
Lincoln described shifting client demographics over recent years. He argues that demand from North American and European investors seeking diversification as a “Plan B” has increased, while investors focused solely on Schengen access “now tend to lean towards EU Golden Visas as a more stable alternative.”
Rafael Cintron, CEO of Wealthy Expat, distinguished between client segments. Only applicants “from lower-tier passport countries like Nigeria, Lebanon, or Algeria who don’t have the budget for a European golden visa” might be deterred, he said. For serious investors, “the EU vote is background noise.”
Hosam noted that the 30-day physical presence requirement under discussion in Caribbean reforms will present varying challenges across investor demographics. He says it seems like it will be a “shared residency” among all family members, meaning the entire family must collectively aggregate 30 days of physical stay.
He argues that, for example, Middle Eastern investors with large families may find shared stay requirements manageable, while Chinese investors typically have smaller families but may resist extended presence requirements.
He argues that the demographic of investors “is changing anyway” since the Caribbean nations raised their minimum investment amounts. As for whether this EU vote will affect demand, he argues it will all “depend on the agents” and how they promote it.
“The Caribbean Is a Different Story Entirely”
Experts largely dismissed prospects of abrupt Caribbean suspensions. Lincoln characterized a sudden suspension as “unlikely,” though he acknowledged “the pressure is really on, especially if the goalposts end up changing over time.”
Cintron drew a sharp distinction between Vanuatu and Caribbean programs. Vanuatu created “a disaster of its own making” when authorities approved people “with Interpol red notices and active criminal cases,” he explained. He argues that authorities conducted “clearly zero due diligence in many cases.”
Having personally undergone the Saint Kitts and Nevis CBI program, Cintron witnessed “how deep the due diligence process runs” and confirmed authorities are “enforcing new measures “seriously.”
He says that the Caribbean “is a different story entirely.”
Hosam offered a bleaker long-term outlook, stating: “Will the EU ever be happy with any CBI program? Absolutely not.”
He argues that if the EU wanted these programs to continue because they see value for these countries, “they could have and they should have, or they would have given some sort of guidelines to make them better.”
Cintron warned of unpredictable escalation. He says Brussels might keep raising the bar until demands become absurd, “for example, requiring 90 days of physical presence or a permanent home for five years.” He worries that if that ever becomes the case, even compliant countries could lose Schengen access at that point.
Arton framed the reform as an opportunity. The changes represent “an opportunity to strengthen cooperation between governments and the investment migration industry,” he noted.
He argues that y “embracing best practices and ensuring that our industry aligns with evolving international standards, we can safeguard both the security interests of states and the mobility rights of individuals who contribute positively to our interconnected world.”
“Competing on Price Is Impossible”
Lincoln urged Caribbean programs to adapt to intensifying competitive pressures. He says visa-free access to the Schengen area “is no longer a guarantee and competing on price is impossible with Vanuatu, Nauru, São Tomé and Príncipe and soon Botswana now all in the mix.”
He says Caribbean CBI programs offer “plenty of other strategic advantages” instead of visa-free access, including safe havens close to the United States with favorable tax regimes, good banking, regional settlement rights, and decent mobility.
He argues, however, that as new programs launch, “targeting offerings around investors from specific niches will become increasingly important as competition heats up.”
Lincoln suggested innovative approaches to differentiation. Saint Kitts and Antigua “both accept crypto as a source of income currently,” he noted.
He argues that going further and “accepting cryptocurrency as a contribution directly like El Salvador would be an interesting move, though the trade-off in potential extra scrutiny would need to be carefully considered.”
Cintron pointed to Vanuatu’s continued market presence after losing its EU waiver in November 2024 as evidence of demand resilience. He says Caribbean passports “still offer far stronger mobility in other regions, particularly Latin America and Asia.”
Cintron advised clients to prioritize certainty to consider alternatives. He argues that, because of EU unpredictability, “clients who value certainty should prioritize golden visas or residency routes instead of pure CBI.”
The legislation requires formal Council adoption before taking effect. Once the Council publishes it in the Official Journal, the regulation becomes legally binding for all member states 20 days later. To date, authorities have revoked visa freedom once under the existing mechanism, in the case of Vanuatu.Retry
