Real estate-backed golden visa programs promised investors two benefits in 2025: residency pathways and property returns. However, significant market divergence emerged, with some jurisdictions delivering robust appreciation while others faced headwinds from regulatory changes and cooling demand.
The year crystallized a fundamental shift in golden visa real estate dynamics. Markets that maintained accessibility saw strong performance, while those implementing restrictions or closures experienced moderation or volatility in their property sectors.
Defining the Golden Visa Real Estate Universe
This analysis examines programs permitting open-market real estate purchases rather than pre-approved developments or donation-only routes. The universe includes active programs in Greece, Turkey, UAE, Latvia, Cyprus, Thailand, Malaysia, Mauritius, and Bahrain.
UAE: Double-Digit Gains Continue
The UAE Golden Visa real estate market delivered the strongest returns among major programs in 2025. According to Dubai Land Department statistics, residential property prices increased 12.8% year-over-year through November 2025, with premium areas seeing gains exceeding 15%.
Dubai’s off-plan market, popular with golden visa investors, showed particular strength. Areas like Dubai Marina and Downtown Dubai, where many qualifying properties are located, recorded average price appreciation of 14.2% and 13.7% respectively, according to Property Finder data.
Rental yields remained attractive at 6-8% annually for well-positioned properties, though some cooling emerged in Q4 2025 as supply increased. The combination of capital appreciation and income generation provided total returns approaching 20% for optimally positioned investments.
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Greece: Moderation Following Threshold Changes
Greece’s golden visa program saw returns moderate in 2025 following September 2024 threshold increases to €800,000 for Athens and prime areas, with €250,000 retained for conversion properties. According to Bank of Greece data, national residential prices rose 6.4% year-over-year through October 2025, down from 12.1% in 2024.
The threshold changes created a two-tier market. Properties below €800,000 in Athens saw limited appreciation as golden visa demand shifted, while conversion opportunities in secondary locations maintained steady 4-7% gains. Greece’s decision to impose restrictions on short-term rentals for golden visa properties further impacted yield expectations.
Rhodes and Thessaloniki emerged as alternatives, delivering 8-9% price appreciation while maintaining the €250,000 threshold. These markets attracted investors seeking geographic diversification within Greece’s program structure.
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Turkey: Negative Real Returns Despite Currency Advantage
Turkey’s citizenship by investment program maintained its $400,000 real estate threshold throughout 2025, but lira depreciation created complex return dynamics. Turkish Statistical Institute data showed residential property prices increased 47% year-over-year in lira terms through September 2025.
However, the reality for investors proved significantly less favorable. When adjusted for Turkey’s high inflation rate of approximately 39%, real property values actually declined by 0.5% to 8.8% depending on location, with Istanbul experiencing the steepest real-term losses at 8.8%.
The lira’s approximately 20% depreciation against the dollar further eroded returns for international investors. While nominal lira prices appeared strong, dollar-denominated investors experienced negative or near-zero returns in most cases. Properties that might have shown 5-10% gains on paper translated to losses when accounting for currency depreciation and inflation.
The citizenship revocation proceedings affecting 451 investors in fraudulent real estate cases highlighted due diligence importance, though properly executed transactions remained unaffected.
Foreign investors increasingly focused on developments in established areas with clear title documentation and dollar-denominated pricing to mitigate currency risk, though even these strategies provided limited protection against the broader market headwinds.
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Latvia: Resurgence in Real Estate Route
Latvia experienced unexpected growth in golden visa real estate applications, with property investments comprising 45% of total approvals in H1 2025 versus 29% in 2024. This shift reflected renewed interest in European Union access through real estate investment.
Riga’s residential market delivered 7.3% price appreciation according to local real estate associations, while coastal areas like Jurmala saw gains of 9.1%. The €250,000 threshold remained attractive compared to other EU options, particularly following Greece’s increases.
Rental yields in central Riga averaged 4-6% annually, providing total returns of 11-15% for well-selected properties. The market’s smaller scale meant individual transactions could significantly impact local pricing dynamics.
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Cyprus: Steady but Unremarkable
Cyprus maintained its permanent residency program with a €300,000 real estate threshold, though the suspended citizenship program’s absence limited high-end demand. Property prices increased modestly at 3.2% year-over-year according to Cyprus Statistical Service data.
Rental yields remained compressed at 3-4% annually due to market saturation and limited high-end demand. The program attracted investors seeking EU residency at a lower price point, though returns lagged behind more dynamic markets.
Emerging Markets Show Promise
Thailand’s Long-Term Resident visa attracted increased attention, with Bangkok residential prices rising 4.8% year-over-year. The ฿10 million ($280,000) property threshold appealed to investors seeking Southeast Asian exposure.
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Risk Factors Affecting Returns
Several jurisdictions imposed restrictions affecting golden visa property returns. Greece’s Airbnb limitations reduced income potential for many investors, while increased due diligence requirements in multiple markets extended transaction timelines.
Currency volatility remained a significant factor, particularly for programs priced in local currencies. The Turkish lira’s weakness exemplified how exchange rate movements could substantially impact dollar-denominated returns.
Performance Methodology and Limitations
This analysis considers both capital appreciation and rental yield potential, though liquidity constraints inherent in golden visa real estate limit comparability to traditional investments. Holding period requirements, typically 5-7 years, prevent short-term trading strategies.
Transaction costs, including legal fees, taxes, and due diligence expenses, can reduce net returns by 3-8% depending on jurisdiction. These costs merit careful consideration when evaluating total investment performance.
Looking Toward 2026
Market dynamics suggest continued divergence between accessible and restricted programs. The UAE’s strong economic fundamentals support continued property appreciation, while Greece’s threshold changes may moderate demand in premium areas.
Turkey’s performance will largely depend on macroeconomic stability and lira strength, while emerging markets like Thailand and Malaysia could see increased activity as investors diversify beyond traditional European programs.
The broader trend toward strategic citizenship combinations may influence where investors deploy real estate capital, with tax efficiency and mobility benefits increasingly weighing alongside pure investment returns.
Golden visa real estate delivered mixed results in 2025, with success highly dependent on program selection, timing, and market positioning. Investors achieved strong returns in accessible markets with robust economic fundamentals, while those in transitioning programs faced more complex dynamics requiring careful navigation.
